new hampshire
Okay, my head may have gotten a little swollen after nailing the Iowa prediction last week, so I’m going to go out on a limb again, and try and predict today’s New Hampshire Primary results. My predictions are not the least bit scientific – I take a look at the polls, the general sense of the media coming out of the campaigns, and what little I know traditionally about the electorate and how these things go, and take a wild-ass guess, which, really, is what most of the talking heads do anyway, so I’m in good company.
On the Democratic side, I’m going to call it for Sanders, by probably 15 percent, if not more; this is his home turf, and his independent streak works to his advantage in “Live Free or Die” territory. Also, I think some of the remarks this week from Clinton surrogates (including former Presidents, Secretaries of State, and Gloria Steinham) landed badly up there, and won’t do Clinton any favors.
On the Republican side, I’m going to give it to Trump, though not by as much as he’d like; maybe five percent ahead of second, which is probably going to be Rubio (despite his poor debate performance and inability to provide pancakes). The story, though, is going to be the strong showing by John Kasich, who’s been having a pretty good week under the radar. He’s going to hit third, or even second if I’m wrong about Rubio.
