So, today is the day…the first official votes in this Presidential election cycle actually get cast this evening; the rubber, as they say, finally meets the road.

Predictions? I’m not sure, really, but here’s my general take:

For the Democrats, I’m hoping for a good showing for Bernie Sanders (if we’re being honest, he’s the one who most closely aligns with me philosophically), though I have nothing in particular against Hillary Clinton…I suppose she’d do an okay job, but I just can’t get excited about her, and the idea of dynastic politics makes me uncomfortable (as do Third Way/DLC politics in general). I think it’s kind of a toss-up, really – Clinton’s learned some things since 2008, and has a pretty great ground game, which really makes a difference, but then, so does Sanders. Total toss up.

The Republicans have the bigger show, I guess…My feeling is that Trump and Cruz will come really close; both are stoking the anger and frustration of the far-right, though in the end, I think Cruz (as odious as he is) is gonna come out on top by one or two percent. I suspect, in the end, that there’s some evangelical discomfort with Trump that’s not completely been captured, and while Trump has kind of been annointed (see the Falwell endorsement), Cruz has better bona fides with the religious right, and that’s going to tip things.

Either way, the Republican field is going to get slashed a bit going forward – a few may hang out through Super Tuesday, though I expect folks like Gilmore, Kasich, and Santorum will probably drop in the next week.

My reasonable Republican friends are hoping for Rubio to do well, and I suspect he’ll probably do well, but he comes across as human and mostly rational, and I just don’t think that’s going to be a real advantage this time around.

In any case, I’ll be watching. For some good interesting perspectives (and a good discussion with an actual Iowa voter of how the Caucus works) on the entire process, check out The More Perfect Union podcast (which is made by a few friends of mine). It’s enlightening.